Description

This analysis provides a forecast of AR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-26 9.963251 11.691462 13.579783 15.789625 18.297865 21.049263 24.288457
2025-02-02 7.436521 9.824357 12.694211 16.365658 20.902818 26.289007 33.126022
2025-02-09 5.841714 8.549204 12.077171 16.934416 23.360319 31.473946 42.381665
2025-02-16 4.556104 7.319419 11.190693 16.874037 24.843490 35.438579 50.369528
2025-02-23 3.531259 6.195756 10.189056 16.404444 25.584325 38.352302 57.091148
2025-03-02 2.727781 5.213042 9.185604 15.716304 25.832757 40.489089 62.791836
2025-03-09 2.236882 4.621416 8.660300 15.628256 26.877635 43.753553 70.230700
2025-03-16 1.818066 4.058431 8.074696 15.333024 27.519473 46.407307 76.891104
2025-03-23 1.640741 3.904319 8.154378 16.126992 29.934604 51.888785 88.107689
2025-03-30 1.409948 3.592117 7.894350 16.284023 31.284829 55.764274 97.053801
2025-04-06 1.203510 3.283548 7.587778 16.305526 32.380228 59.271891 105.592797
2025-04-13 1.025645 2.996568 7.274568 16.264730 33.339927 62.589479 113.982493
2025-04-20 0.974035 3.005062 7.582311 17.480929 36.714531 70.261504 130.099117
2025-04-27 0.890091 2.916100 7.673151 18.283640 39.408476 76.966830 145.032039
2025-05-04 0.806719 2.808756 7.706563 18.970497 41.937981 83.540944 160.103610
2025-05-11 0.688599 2.573916 7.409713 18.925291 43.046041 87.658563 171.174263
2025-05-18 0.564469 2.283610 6.928442 18.414651 43.177313 90.002856 179.256052
2025-05-25 0.450813 1.986777 6.372925 17.657614 42.724069 91.215907 185.362602
2025-06-01 0.383289 1.819635 6.120320 17.561211 43.616817 94.981601 196.228181
2025-06-08 0.318303 1.637425 5.791142 17.235453 43.983232 97.747350 205.381362
2025-06-15 0.299944 1.626885 5.944517 18.112154 47.025090 105.862371 224.813158
2025-06-22 0.263301 1.529485 5.825972 18.285488 48.514676 110.986604 238.837169
2025-06-29 0.227758 1.422544 5.658174 18.309229 49.663719 115.485284 251.865962